The Tory Party would lose its majority in the House of Commons if a general election was held tomorrow, according to a new MRP survey conducted by Survation for campaign group 38 Degrees. A total of 92 Conservative MPs would lose their seats as Labour would emerge as the largest party in the UK for the first time since 2005.
Despite making significant gains from Jeremy Corbyn’s disastrous campaign in 2019, the Labour Party would fall well short of obtaining a majority in Parliament.
The MRP poll put Labour’s estimated seats at 293 and the Conservatives on just 273.
Boris Johnson, who returned to the Commons in 2019 with an enlarged majority of 7,210, also appears set to lose his seat in Uxbridge & South Ruislip after Labour opened up a nine-point lead in the west London constituency.
Analysis indicates Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has mounted a strong charge among Brits aged 50 to 64.
Mr Johnson’s lead with the key demographic has been overturned since 2019, when YouGov put the Conservative lead at 23 percent, with Labour opening up a two-point lead.
News of the survey comes just hours before Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s spring statement.
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Mr Sunak is currently facing the challenge of helping Brits through the cost of living crisis, which looks set to see inflation hit seven percent and average energy bills increase by £693.
Survation’s research also highlighted how the cost of living had already impacted Brits, with almost three-in-four respondents saying energy bills are higher and 55 percent adding they are paying more for transport than last year.
In a blow for the Prime Minister, the poll suggested Red Wall voters had reported the worst impacts of the energy crisis.
Ellie Gellard, Director of Strategy at 38 Degrees, called on the Treasury to act to help Brits struggling.
She said: “The country is crying out for help with this catastrophic cost of living crisis.
“People are struggling at home with crippling energy bills – and struggling to leave, with higher transport costs and the shocking price of fuel at the pumps.
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“Second, cuts in state support are more of a problem for working class voters who the Conservatives might want to appeal to on cultural issues.
“Third, the increases in energy costs are so big that they’re a problem for just about everyone.
“You can’t have a major increase in the cost of living for 80 percent of the population and not expect the governing party to pay some kind of price for that.”
Survation and 38 Degrees conducted two separate polling research exercises.
The first included 2,034 respondents and was based on Tory sleaze allegations and the cost of living crisis.
Fieldwork for the first exercise was carried out between March 4 and March 7.
The second included the MRP analysis, which was conducted over three waves between November 11 and March 7.
The total sample size of the second exercise stood at 8,002.