Beijing is preparing for actions that will mark the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on July 1. The Chinese military has announced it will use the centenary celebrations as an opportunity to “forge absolute loyalty” to the CCP and Chinese president Xi Jinping. Reunification with Taiwan is predicted to be one of the main focus points of the Chinese politburo’s patriotic celebrations.
Speaking to Express.co.uk, Professor Steve Tsang, Director of the China Institute at SOAS University, said: “It is likely that Beijing will organise a show of force in the Taiwan Strait to mark the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party.
“But, I very much doubt that it will start an incident deliberately, as the risk of unintended escalation is high.
“Xi Jinping is a risk taker compared to his two immediate predecessors but he is not reckless.
“With the Biden Administration articulating a clear and strong commitment to Taiwan and the disparity between overall US and Chinese military might still significant, Xi is highly unlikely to want to get into a situation over Taiwan from which he will need to step back under American pressure.
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President Xi Jinping has made it one of his personal ambitions to take the island democracy of Taiwan under the control of the Communist Party that he presides over.
However, Taiwan has said they will defend their democracy to “the very end”.
Speaking to Sky News last week, Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, said China was “preparing for its final military assault” on the island democracy.
However, he claimed the government in Taipei would “defend ourselves to the very end.”
He added: “Taiwan happens to be on the frontline of China’s expansion of its authoritarian order.
“And if Taiwan is taken by China, I think the consequences will be global.”
Last month, the US spoke of “our deepening unofficial relationship” when referring to its relations with Taiwan.
In April US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said: “We have a serious commitment to Taiwan being able to defend itself.
“It would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change that status quo by force.”